As baseball season approaches, I thought I'd bring out my personal theory on the true Red Sox curse. Most New Englanders ascribe the post-season failure of the Bosox to selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees. I suggest another karmic hypothesis. Back in 1918, the Cubs and Red Sox struck during the World Series. Given the political climate of World War I, the players backed down. Teams customarily gave watches to their winning players, instead of the rings now awarded. Because of the union action, the Red Sox never gave their players their watches---until 1993, 75 years after they won the World Series. So the Carmine Hose are only working on an eight-year drought.
March 11
Last night's conference championship games can be the most heartwarming segment of the college basketball season. In these lesser conferences, these moments will be the high point of their season. Many of them will get stomped in the first round by teams like Duke and Michigan State. I especially liked the high spirits when Kent State and Cal State-Northridge won. I think Alabama was the most deserving team on the outside looking in, but I guess they only had a .500 record in the SEC. The press biases too much to the East Coast and discounts Stanford. I think the Cardinal will make the Final Four.
March 10
My alma mater Maryland lost in the last few seconds to Duke today. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Maryland will get a 4 seed or higher, but will still lose in the second round.
March 9
As Albert Belle's career goes into the sunset, baseball fans question whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame. At Baseball-Reference, the most similar player to him whose career has ended is, interestingly enough, Dick Allen. Similarity scores sometimes pick out a pair of players who are similar in some other way as well. Sometimes it picks out two teammates, two black players, two white players, etc. In this case, it picked out two players whose surly relationship with the press and teammates overshadowed their performance on the field. I don't think Dick Allen was as anti-social as Albert. Part of his relationship with the press was due to being too outspoken for a black player in the 1960s. Belle had an intelligent side- as a chess player, the son of two teachers, and in the top 10 of his high school graduating class. My mother-in-law's first cousin-Peter "Packy" Cera, served in many capacities for the Phillies, among them clubhouse equipment manager. He said that in his five decades of baseball, Dick Allen was the nicest player he'd met. Allen as well had a side no one knew.
March 8
I've read a few articles on "Maryland, My Maryland," but none has suggested sanitizing the song for a politically correct present. This is an anti-Confederate version. Well, here's a try at something bowderlized:
A state of resolute women and men, Maryland, My Maryland
Who work hard and do what they can, Maryland, My Maryland
Our governors take bribes now and then
The Orioles and Ravens lose again
But now our lyrics don't offend, Maryland, My Maryland
I expect my royalty check any day now.
March 7
As promised, here's more shortstop data. AB, H, BB, and TB are the standard at-bats, hits, walks, and total bases. Tm RPG is the number of runs per game scored by one team in the games of the player's team. It's just the number of runs the team scored, plus the number of runs the team allowed, divided by the number of games played, that quotient divided by 2. RC/25.5 is the number of runs created per game. Runs created is the basic formula developed by Bill James, which approximates runs scored or runs batted in, but is not affected by position in the lineup. Runs created is ((H+BB)*TB)/(AB+BB). Then runs created is averaged out per game. A game is based on 25.5 outs, rather than 27 outs, because that how many outs per game comes from batting actions, rather than on the basepaths. A player's outs are just AB-H. OWP represents the offensive winning percentage-if a team's offense consisted of nine players like this one, and its defense allowed an average number given by Tm RPG, what would the winning percentage of such a team be? Finally OW is offensive wins, how many games would such a team win if you apply that winning percentage over the number of games that player batted. Each game is based again on 25.5 outs.
Now that the technical discussion is over, I conclude that the Ripken, Trammell, and Yount are at least in the same ballpark, if not better than Garciaparra, Jeter and Rodriguez. Although the current guys produce better raw numbers, those homers and hits are inflated because everybody is hitting the ball well. Garciaparra, who played in the worst offensive context, still had more runs scored in his games than Alan Trammell, who played in the best offensive environment. In 1948, Lou Boudreau looks pretty good, but Vern Stephens is taken down a notch by the inflated numbers of Fenway Park. The Scooter had an offensive winning percentage of below .400. Like a team below .400, this is terrible for a supposed Hall of Famer in one of his best years. Joe Cronin and Luke Appling knocked out some good numbers in 1933. Williams is Dib of the Athletics who managed to be a notch above Rizzuto.
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
1999 Garciaparra 532 190 51 321 4.80 9.89 .810 10.9
1999 Jeter 627 219 91 346 5.03 9.34 .775 12.4
1999 Rodriguez 502 143 56 294 5.44 7.45 .652 9.2
Total 32.4
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
2000 Garciaparra 529 197 61 317 4.74 10.65 .834 10.9
2000 Jeter 593 201 68 285 5.23 7.54 .675 10.4
2000 Rodriguez 554 175 100 336 5.21 9.51 .769 11.4
Total 32.7
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
1983 Ripken 663 211 58 343 4.48 7.22 .722 12.8
1983 Yount 578 178 72 291 4.54 7.14 .712 11.2
1983 Trammell 505 161 57 238 4.53 6.84 .695 9.4
Total 33.3
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
1984 Ripken 641 195 71 327 4.16 6.98 .738 12.9
1984 Yount 624 186 67 275 4.27 5.86 .653 11.2
1984 Trammell 555 174 60 260 4.54 6.62 .680 10.2
Total 34.3
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
1948 Boudreau 560 199 98 299 4.51 9.53 .817 11.6
1948 Stephens 635 171 77 299 5.25 5.72 .543 9.9
1948 Rizzuto 464 117 60 152 4.84 3.77 .378 5.1
Total 26.6
Year Player AB H BB TB Tm RPG RC/25.5 OWP OW
1933 Cronin 602 186 87 268 4.95 6.51 .633 10.3
1933 Appling 612 197 56 271 4.96 6.31 .618 10.1
1933 Williams 408 118 32 181 5.68 5.43 .477 5.4
Total 25.8
March 6
Once again, Maryland residents have discovered the lyrics to our state song. Sung to the tune of "O Tanenbaum," a native Marylander wrote it in New Orleans in 1861. That year Baltimoreans rioted as Union troops from Massachusetts made their way to Washington. The words are a Confederate call to arms. Back in our College Bowl days, Bob Maranto suggested we sing it as a psyche-up song. Before winning our first regional championship, Townsend Reese thought it was the equivalent of the "Marseillaise" in Casablanca. Townie was always a little over-dramatic. Anyway, while some folks want to get rid of our state song, I think someone should just write more politically correct lyrics. So, here are the two verses we would sing:
The despot's heel is at thy shore, Maryland, My Maryland
His torch is at thy temple door, Maryland, My Maryland
Avenge the patriotic gore
That flecked the streets of Baltimore
And be the battle queen of yore, Maryland, My Maryland
I hear the distant thunder hum, Maryland, My Maryland
The Old Line's bugle, fife and drum, Maryland, My Maryland
She is not blind, nor deaf, nor dumb
Huzza! She spurns the Northern scum
She breathes, she burns. She'll come, she'll come, Maryland, My Maryland
March 5
We didn't get any snow that stuck. We may get more tonight.
CNN/SI has an interesting article on the current triumvirate of shortstops. I have asserted, ever since the talk started, that this group plays in the same league with Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, and Alan Trammell from the 1980s. I'm especially harsh on Jeter as you may have noticed from previous posts. The CNN/SI article seems to show that the current group is superior in raw totals. However, we live in a particularly high offense era. The following numbers show each player's runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, walks and total bases. Each triplet is followed by a total for the group and totals for the entire league that year. The percentage represents the group's share of that statistic in the league. For RBIs, I used total runs scored as the league base. The current guys have advantages in home runs and RBIs, but not in the other statistics. Despite those home runs and RBIs, they lag in total bases to the 1980s guys. The current guys appear to have better table-setters in front of them. Although this isn't the definitive answer, it calls into question the pre-eminence of A-Rod, Nomar and Jeter. I think later on, I'll recalculate these comparisons based on park and era-adjusted offensive wins. CNN/SI also listed trios from the other years including the AL in 1948 and 1933. Those boys could give these folks a run for their money.
Year Player R H HR RBI BB TB
1999 Garciaparra 103 190 27 104 51 321
1999 Jeter 134 219 24 102 91 346
1999 Rodriguez 110 143 42 111 56 294
Total 347 552 93 317 198 961
1999 AL 11725 21447 2635 8269 34402
2.96% 2.57% 3.53% 2.70% 2.39% 2.79%
Year Player R H HR RBI BB TB
2000 Garciaparra 104 197 21 96 61 317
2000 Jeter 119 201 15 73 68 285
2000 Rodriguez 134 175 41 132 100 336
Total 357 573 77 301 229 938
2000 AL 11995 21652 2688 8503 34825
2.98% 2.65% 2.86% 2.51% 2.69% 2.69%
Year Player R H HR RBI BB TB
1983 Ripken 121 211 27 102 58 343
1983 Yount 102 178 17 80 72 291
1983 Trammell 83 161 14 66 57 238
Total 306 550 58 248 187 872
1983 AL 10177 20662 1903 7094 31179
3.01% 2.66% 3.05% 2.44% 2.64% 2.80%
Year Player R H HR RBI BB TB
1984 Ripken 103 195 27 86 71 327
1984 Yount 105 186 16 80 67 275
1984 Trammell 85 174 14 69 60 260
Total 293 555 57 235 198 862
1984 AL 10027 20539 1980 7171 30990
2.92% 2.70% 2.88% 2.34% 2.76% 2.78%
March 4
No snow yet, freezing rain, though. Got my hair cut. Washington Post article on missile defense got me thinking about a Zen Pirates debate some years ago. Zen Pirates was a group of mostly guys who played games and bonded in a nerd male way. A discussion developed on the B-2 Stealth bomber, to which Andy Looney kept saying,"But you don't understand. It's a cool-looking plane." He had to say this several times before the combatants noticed his attitude. I think this means political partisans need to look at alternate thinking. Someone suggested a different plane that was also cool-looking, but didn't cost so much. More bang for the buck, or in this case, more cool for the cash.
March 3
Quiet day today. Fixed a printing problem on my desktop computer. Problem was probably a faulty data switching unit, from back when both a PC and a Commodore 64 were both connected to the same printer. Meanwhile, the Washington area is going crazy because we are expecting a heavy snowstorm Sunday night. Stay tuned for possible snow reports.
March 2
Salon has an article on Intelligent Design Theory, the latest threat to Darwinism in schools. The foundation established to advance Intelligent Design Theory comdens conventional science for "amorality and materialism". Well, duh. It's like putting down the military because it trains people to kill and does little to advance the nation's economic interest. Science does not inherently oppose religion. Getting rid of science gets rid of sanitation, medicine, communications, and transportation. This is the world we live in, deal with it! If you don't like it, go live in a cave.
March 1
You frequently hear fans and sportswriters say,"I don't like the DH, but it's stupid to play with different rules in the two leagues." The rationale sounds reasonable, but consider this:
Imagine football fields being 110 yards long sometimes and 85 yards sometimes. Imagine the three-point line being 18 feet sometimes and 25 feet sometimes. Imagine a roughing penalty resulting in 90 seconds in the sin bin sometimes and 3 minutes sometimes.
Kinda stupid, huh? Well baseball works that way. Since the demise of the cookie-cutter stadiums, every ballpark is different. A home run in one stadium is a long out somewhere else. Lighting conditions make a well-seen ball into a swinging strike somewhere else. I think ballpark differences create greater varieties than just the DH rule. So, if we've lived with these stadium differences, what's the big deal with the DH difference? Major League Baseball has had these variances for nearly 30 years, more than half the life of many fans, and it makes the game more interesting.
Bjork lays an egg.
